SPY Swing Trading Strategy: 82% Winners Using 3 Lines of Code

It's time to stop treating your spy swing trading as a hobby, it's time to get serious.

Understanding the exact odds of every trade you make is the only way to make consistent money swing trading stocks.

Therefore, I want to share three lines of code in a simple swing trading strategy that you can use to time the S&P 500 with 82% winning odds starting today.

And the best part is you don't even need a computer, but some basic counting is required.

Let's get started!

If this expression is true, we want to look for swing trades in the long direction.  

You only want to buy if the price is above the 66-day moving average (this also works on individual stocks and many commodities).

Now, let's move on to the second part of our swing trading strategy, when exactly do you trade SPY?

Once you establish that the market is moving higher, you want to buy dips.

You never want to short an up-trending market because you will get your head handed to you.

I don't know why so many amateur traders love to short stocks.

Humans tend to overestimate their abilities and this is where I think a lot of that psychology comes from.

Check yourself if you are thinking "I'm smarter than the markets".

Nope, you aren't, and neither am I, that's why we test our ideas first.

OK, so how do you tell a computer what a dip is?

You must use absolute quantifiable terms here; you can't just say "the market should find support here."

Also, you must keep your definition of a dip super simple.

You don't want to over-optimize and run the risk of curve-fitting your SPY swing trading strategies.

So, let's look at SPY and ask the computer a simple question, is today's close the lowest in 3 days?  

(You can play around with this number, but I've found 3 works well)

If this expression is true you have yourself a "dip".

You now have an uptrend established and a dip in the uptrend and it's time to buy!

(This proves to be remarkably profitable as you will see in a minute)

Do you know what the hardest part of trading really is?  

It's not knowing when to buy, it's knowing when to sell.  

You might intuitively already know that.  

How many stocks have you held onto for too long?

Anecdotally, my brother once showed me his portfolio and it was full of losers!  

I asked him what was going on, and he responded: "I just never know when to sell."

This is why it is so important to have a trading system in place, especially when swing trading stocks. 

Getting in is easy, getting out is hard.

So how do you know when to sell your position in SPY once you bought the dip?  

You have to let the market mean-revert to the upside and then sell into that rally.

But what is a "rally" and how do you think like a computer to give it exact instructions?  

Well, let's use the inverse of how we defined a dip above.

Let's ask the computer to tell us when SPY has made a close higher than the previous 19 days.

If this expression is true, it's time to sell SPY and most likely bank a nice profit.  

Okay, let's wrap these three simple ideas into a swing trading strategy for SPY.  

Then let's plug it into the computer and see what happens.

Computers don't lie to your face like the suits on Wall Street or internet grifters selling doom and gloom and "technical analysis".  

Let's recap what we've put together so far in visual form:

It's truly that simple, these trading strategy rules are about as basic as they come.

Let's look at how unbelievably powerful this little SPY swing trading strategy is.

Each of those green dots is a new equity high for this trading model.  

Incredible isn't it?  

This is the power of testing ideas before jumping headfirst into the stock market.

Let's look at some example trades produced by this simple SPY swing trading strategy:

You can see when SPY dips it's usually very profitable to be a buyer.  

I often get asked if this is the best SPY Options Trading Strategy.

I usually recommend people stay away from options unless they really know what they are doing.

There are too many variables for my liking, and also wow that leverage can absolutely kill your portfolio.

I like to keep it relaxed as you know, so I stick with stocks and ETFs.

Continuing on, let's look at the statistics of this simple SPY swing trade strategy:

Can you believe such simple rules can time the stock market with such great odds?

Next time you are about to trade, ask yourself if you truly know the odds of making or losing money.

Because if you don't know the exact odds how do you even know how much money to risk?

So, I implore you to always test your ideas before you risk another dime.